The Dictator's Handbook: Why Bad Behavior is Almost Always Good Politics

Democracy is a form of government in which the citizens of a state have the power to decide legislation either directly or indirectly through elected officials. For Bueno de Mesquita and Smith, democracies have a large number of essentials and a large number of interchangeables, with the influential group being almost as big as the interchangeable group. The authors underscore that no two democracies are alike, differing in the make-up of interchangeables, influentials, and essentials. They use the term “democracy” in the book out of convenience. They strongly believe that large-coalition systems are the key to improving life for people around the world.

Dictatorship is a form of government in which absolute power is in the hands of one person or small group. Dictatorships are often identified with an autocracy, although they do not need to be. For Bueno de Mesquita and Smith, this type of government has a “particularly small number of essentials drawn from a very large group of interchangeables and, usually, a relatively small batch of influentials” (8). The authors underscore that no two dictatorships are alike, differing in the make-up of interchangeables, influentials, and essentials. They use the term “dictatorship” in the book out of convenience.

Discretionary money is money that is not required to buy supporters’ loyalty. There are two ways that leaders can use discretionary money: store it in a secret bank account for themselves or use it to help the everyday people. The authors argue that there are more “master thieves” among world leaders than those who are civic minded. Bueno de Mesquita and Smith have a hall of shame and a hall of fame for leaders who fall into the civic-minded category. They put leaders “who wanted to do well and didn’t” in the hall of shame and “those who wanted to do well and did” in the hall of fame (156).

The etymology of monarchy means “‘rule by one’” (2). King Louis XIV is famously thought to have stated, “L’état, c’est moi: the state, it is me” (2), although Bueno de Mesquita and Smith cast doubt on this idea. Furthermore, the authors do not believe that such a rule actually exists. They strongly believe that no leader stands on their own. Monarchies typically have small numbers of interchangeables, influentials, and essentials.

The nominal selectorate, or interchangeables, is one of the three political groups that leaders must navigate to stay in power. This group includes every individual who has at least some legal say in choosing their leader. For example, the nominal selectorate in the United States is everyone who is of voting age, or least 18 years of age or older. Individuals in this group do not have much political power since no one individual has a lot of say over who rules the country.

Private goods are commodities or services that are limited to a certain group. Leaders in small-coalition systems primarily allocate private benefits to their supporters. Even when these few receive lavish rewards, private goods still cost less in total than public goods for the masses. This is especially the case when the coalition is not only small but drawn from a large group of interchangeables. Those receiving the private reward understand that it is this reward that separates them from the masses. Therefore, these individuals are more inclined to be loyal towards the leader. Private rewards help leaders keep their small coalitions loyal. Leaders in large-coalition systems also use private rewards. These are in the form of specific policies for their coalitions using taxpayer money. Leaders in all organizations use private rewards to buy their supporters’ loyalty.

Public goods are commodities or services that are available to all citizens of a country. While these goods are often free, they are funded through public taxation. Leaders in democracies that are survival minded typically allocate public goods to keep their coalitions happy. These leaders recognize that their ability to stay in office depends on the support from their large coalitions. The only way to keep their coalitions happy is to have popular public policies. Autocratic leaders only provide public goods to their country’s workers. Workers pay taxes, which enable autocratic leaders to reward their supporters and stay in power. Leaders in autocracies often exclude those who do not keep them in power, such as infants and the elderly, from public goods. For this reason, the authors strongly believe that the most reliable means to a high standard of living for ordinary people is to be part of a democratic system. A leader’s dependence on a large coalition means they must govern for the people if they want to remain in power.

The real selectorate, or influentials, represents one of the three political groups that leaders must navigate to stay in power. This group comprises the individuals who choose the leader. In the United States, the electors of the electoral college choose the president, so they represent the influentials. In modern-day elections, these individuals must vote the way their state’s voters voted, so they do not have more power than the individual voter in the United States.