How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them

One of the key tenets of this chapter is to show that a civil war is possible in the US. Walter suggests that part of the reason why so many people still believe that a civil war is impossible is because they imagine a conflict similar to the country’s first civil war. In 1860, the country’s military was extremely weak, which is not the case today. The southern states were also united in their decision to secede from the union. Secession was possible because of this geographic concentration. Today, would-be secessionists are geographically disbursed. However, Walter argues that “to think of civil war only in these terms—is a failure of the imagination” (167). She reaffirms that modern-day civil wars are not fought on battlefields. Instead, they are fought through guerilla warfare and terrorism, as evidenced in her imaginary tale of what the start of a second US civil war might look like.

Walter also continues to expand on her theme of American Democracy and Its Vulnerabilities by focusing on seven elements that could help extremists weaken the country’s democratic institutions. While not all of these elements occur yet in the US, they have all been used by extremists around the world as part of their terror strategies.

Canonical texts represent the first. Examples of these texts in the US include The Turner Diaries, which depicts a violent revolution in the US that leads to the collapse of the federal government, nuclear war, and a race war that focuses on the extermination of non-white and Jewish Americans. This text inspires far-right extremists, including the Oklahoma City Bombing by Timothy McVeigh. Up until the January 6 Insurrection, Amazon sold The Turner Diaries. In fact, it ranked 46 on their “Bestselling Literature” list.

The second element is ethnic cleansing, which canonical texts often inspire. The US is starting to move through the stages of ethnic cleansing with its racial stratification, which deeply concerns Walter. She underscores that a large portion of the population does not need to participate for the systematic removal of groups of people to occur. Instead, a majority of the population must stay passive. 

The third element is the concept of accelerationism, which is “the apocalyptic belief that modern society is irredeemable and that its end must be hastened, so that a new order can be brought into being” (175). Extremists who subscribe to this view believe they cannot make political progress through normal means (e.g., elections, protests, and rallies). As a result, they firmly believe violence is the only way to push forward their agenda. These extremists attempt to use any amount of instability, such as COVID-19 lockdowns or protests, to incite violence. Their goal in doing so is to convince more Americans to join their cause. Accelerationist groups including Atomwaffen Division (AWD) and Boogaloo Bois have gained notoriety over the last few years for attempting this. These groups are also examples of the leaderless resistance movement, which is a social resistance strategy where small groups or individuals challenge an established institution through independent acts of violence.

The fourth element is sustained acts of violence against people and infrastructure, also known as a war of attrition. This campaign enacts psychological and physical violence on everyday people. In doing so, extremists hope to cause people enough pain until those in power offer the extremists the concessions they would like or voters replace current politicians with ones sympathetic to the extremists. Al-Qaeda’s attack on the World Trade Center is an example of this type of campaign. This attack came after a series of attacks on other US targets around the world.

Intimidation represents the fifth element. Extremists intentionally use violence to goad everyday people into submission. Anti-abortion terrorists and the Ku Klux Kan have both used intimidation tactics to bully people who do not hold their viewpoints.

Outbidding and spoiling represent the final two terror strategists that extremists can use to erode democracies. The former refers to competition among militia groups with the goal that one dominates; the latter refers to when some militia groups band together to achieve concessions, with governments leaving other groups out of these deals. In most cases, these concessions do not support all the goals of the resistance movement. As a result, those not part of this newly formed coalition try to spoil the deal. Foreign support is often key for this strategy to be successful.

Walter devotes much of this chapter to these seven terrorism strategies so that readers understand how extremists employ them to erode democratic institutions. Her strategy fits with her overall goal to educate readers on the risk factors and patterns that prelude civil wars to prevent a second one from occurring in the US.

Walter also continues to discuss Social Media’s Corrosive Influence on Democracy. Prior to the advent of social media, militias and extremist groups found it difficult to coordinate because they relied on word of mouth and printed handouts. Thus, these groups remained relatively small and isolated. Social media, however, substantially ramped up their coordination, as well as recruitment capabilities. When mainstream social media platforms, like Facebook and Twitter, cracked down on militia groups, these groups simply moved to less popular and less regulated platforms, including Gab and Telegram. Walter finds this move concerning since it makes curbing the reach of extremists even more difficult in the US.